被誉为“债王”的亿万富翁投资人冈拉克表示，黄金创纪录的涨势还远未结束。他预测，黄金价格可能攀升至每盎司 4000 美元，较周五下午的 3345 美元水平上涨 20%。
Billionaire investor Gundlach, known as the "Bond King," stated that gold's record-breaking rally is far from over. He predicts that gold prices could climb to $4,000 per ounce, representing a 20% increase from Friday afternoon's level of $3,345.
本周五，在短暂跌至 3275 美元的新低后，金价强劲反弹，并回到 20 日均线上方。交易人士指出，如果金价能够继续反弹，那么其将有望延续周一触发的牛市动能。
This Friday, gold prices rebounded strongly after briefly dropping to a new low of $3,275, returning above the 20-day moving average. Traders noted that if gold prices can sustain this rebound, the bullish momentum triggered on Monday is likely to continue.
而冈拉克为这一预期提供了一些理论支持。他指出，关税相关的波动从根本上改变了交易员对贵金属的看法，黄金不再是短期交易者的投机工具，也不再是生存主义者的长期持有工具。
Gundlach provided some theoretical support for this expectation. He pointed out that tariff-related volatility has fundamentally changed traders' perceptions of precious metals, with gold no longer serving as a speculative instrument for short-term traders nor as a long-term holding for survivalists.
他认为，市场由于对地缘政治动荡的担忧，包括关税等各种因素，以及现有的美国债务规模，已经将黄金视为一种真正的货币资产。
He believes that due to market concerns over geopolitical turmoil, various factors including tariffs, and the current scale of U.S. debt, gold has already been regarded as a genuine monetary asset.
冈拉克还补充称，目前股票等其他风险资产的市场环境充满挑战。美股短期内可能出现崩盘，标普 500 指数或许会跌至 4500 点。这意味着该指数将从当前水平下跌 20%。从中期来看，投资者正处于避险市场。
Gundlach also added that the current market environment for stocks and other risk assets is challenging. The U.S. stock market could experience a crash in the short term, with the S&P 500 potentially dropping to 4,500 points. This would represent a 20% decline from current levels. From a medium-term perspective, investors are currently in a risk-averse market.
健康盘整且大涨
Healthy consolidation followed by a significant rise.
分析师指出，自从特朗普宣布赢得 2024 年总统大选以来，金价的每次调整都始于急剧下跌，但随着强劲的长期牛市预期重新向上推进，且收回跌幅所需的时间逐渐减少。
Analysts pointed out that since Trump announced his bid to win the 2024 presidential election, every correction in gold prices has begun with a sharp decline. However, as strong expectations of a long-term bull market push prices upward again, the time required to recover these losses has gradually decreased.
黄金价格的健康盘整在短期至中期内仍可能持续下去，但支撑黄金走强的结构性因素依然存在：美元走弱和美债收益率的波动、金砖国家央行持续去美元化、对美国财政赤字膨胀的担忧，以及乌克兰、中东和现在的印度与巴基斯坦之间的地缘政治问题。
The healthy consolidation in gold prices may continue in the short to medium term, but the structural factors supporting gold's strength remain intact: a weakening US dollar and fluctuations in US Treasury yields, ongoing de-dollarization by BRICS central banks, concerns over the expanding US fiscal deficit, and geopolitical issues involving Ukraine, the Middle East, and now India and Pakistan.
根据世界黄金协会的数据，4 月份全球实物黄金 ETF 市场规模增加了 110 亿美元，达到 3970 亿美元，标志着强劲的买盘。
According to data from the World Gold Council, the global physical gold ETF market grew by 11 billion USD in April, reaching 397 billion USD, indicating strong buying activity.
摩根大通也再次上调了黄金预期，大宗商品策略师 Natasha Kaneva 预期，未来几年内，金价不需要花费太多力气就能达到雄心勃勃的 6000 美元水平，相当于较目前上涨约 80%。
JPMorgan has once again raised its gold forecast. Commodity strategist Natasha Kaneva expects that, within the next few years, gold prices could easily reach an ambitious level of $6,000, representing an increase of approximately 80% from current levels.