Goldman Sachs just doubled down on its bull case for U.S. stocks.
According to Seeking Alpha reporting, the bank reiterated its base case call for the S&P 500 to reach 7,600 (13.5% above current levels) by the end of 2026, backed by ongoing earnings momentum and an economy that’s still expanding.
The bank’s strategists expect the index’s earnings to surge to about $309 per share in 2026 and $342 in 2027, implying roughly 12% and 10%, respectively.
For context, Goldman first flagged the 7,600 target in its January market outlook.
At the time of writing on March 17, 2026, the S&P 500 traded at 6,697.99, down 2.2% year- to-date, according to Yahoo Finance.
So clearly, it hasn’t been all guns blazing like it was over the past two to three years, when the AI-led stock market frenzy pushed the index to record highs.
For some perspective, the S&P 500’s spearhead in Nvidia jumped 171% in 2024 and accounted for over a fifth of the S&P 500’s overall gain.
However, as of March 16, 2026, Nvidia traded at $183.22, down roughly 1.8% year-to-date from its Dec. 31, 2025, close of $186.50, according to Yahoo Finance.
A myriad of headwinds, including elevated oil prices, stickier inflation, delayed hopes of Fed cuts, and weaker market breadth, have effectively offset the lion’s share of the index’s bullish momentum.
Hence, given the setup at this point, there are plenty of reasons for investors to be cautious.
For starters, the S&P 500 is currently trading at nearly 21 times forward earnings, while market leadership remains concentrated in a handful of mega-cap giants spending billions on AI-driven capex.
Goldman Sachs acknowledges that the 10 biggest companies account for nearly 39% of the index’s market value and nearly 31% of earnings.
In fact, according to reporting from Seeking Alpha, veteran analyst Torsten Slok of Apollo Global Management said that the weighting could climb even higher, reaching 50%.
“The bottom line is that the S&P 500 basically doesn’t offer much diversification anymore,” Slok said.
Here’s the top 10 companies by weighting on the S&P 500:
- Nvidia: 7.31% weighting.
- Apple: 6.63% weighting.
- Microsoft: 4.96% weighting.
- Amazon: 3.47% weighting.
- Alphabet Class A: 3.08% weighting.
- Broadcom: 2.56% weighting.
- Alphabet Class C: 2.46% weighting.
- Meta Platforms: 2.40% weighting.
- Tesla: 1.92% weighting.
- Berkshire Hathaway: 1.57% weighting.
- Source: Seeking Alpha