Global bond yields have risen to highs last seen in 2009 ahead of a key Federal Reserve policy meeting, signaling concerns that interest-rate cutting cycles from the US to Australia may be ending soon.
Yields on a Bloomberg gauge of long-dated government bonds have returned to 16-year highs, with money market bets underscoring that sentiment. Traders are now pricing virtually no more rate cuts from the European Central Bank, while betting on an all-but-certain hike this month in Japan and two quarter-point increases next year in Australia.
Even in the US, where the Fed is expected to cut rates on Wednesday, the outlook is rapidly evolving. Yields on 30-year Treasuries have climbed back to multi-month highs as investors eye a less benign outlook for monetary policy, inflation and fiscal discipline.
A gauge of prices followed by the Fed edged up to 2.8% in September, almost a full percentage point above the central bank’s target. Concerns around the independence of the next Fed Chairman is spurring some investors to build a risk premium into the Treasuries curve, and borrowings to help plug a $1.8 trillion budget deficit are also weighing on bonds.
“A ‘disappointment trade’ is unfolding across several developed markets” as investors come to grips with central bank rate-cutting cycles that may be ending soon, wrote Robert Tipp, chief investment strategist and head of global bonds at PGIM Fixed Income. Long-term US rates also face challenging conditions with an end to the Fed’s easing cycle possibly in sight, he added.
The market shift reflects growing conviction that the rate-cutting cycle — introduced last year to spur growth and has, in the process, propelled global stocks to record highs and boosted bond prices — is ending soon. Bond investors are now mulling the outlook for global growth, examining inflation risks amid President Donald Trump’s trade war and surging government debt from Tokyo to London.
What Bloomberg Strategists Say...
“Investors now require a higher risk premium amid rising deficits, increased macro uncertainty, and a breakdown in the reliably negative equity–bond correlation. Bonds simply no longer provide the same diversification benefit they once did.”
—Skylar Montgomery Koning, macro strategist. For the full analysis, click here
Bond yields in Japan to Germany have also climbed to multi-year highs, with longer-dated debt under most pressure due to the prospects for greater debt issuance. Japan and the UK are responding to a change in investor demand by boosting short-term borrowings.
Constrained
Treasuries are in focus just hours ahead of the Fed meeting, where policymakers are expected to deliver a third consecutive cut. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are hovering around the highest levels since September, an unusual phenomenon that suggests concerns around the US’ debt pile and who may replace Chairman Jerome Powell when his term ends in May.
White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett has emerged as the front-runner, and is widely considered a supporter of Trump’s preference for lower rates.
“We’ve seen the Hassett-trade price in easing monetary policy in recent days with a weaker dollar, steeper yield curve and rallying risk assets,” wrote Gordon Shannon, a portfolio manager of TwentyFour Asset Management. “However, markets are hesitant about how far to push this — even a Hassett-led Fed may be constrained by persistence in inflation.”
Read: ECB’s Schnabel ‘Rather Comfortable’ on Bets Next Move to Be Hike
For now, global bond markets are signaling that borrowing cost pressures will persist.
German lawmakers are set to approve a record €52 billion ($61 billion) of defense orders next week, while investors are still digesting Japan’s biggest burst of spending since pandemic restrictions eased. In Sydney, central bank Governor Michele Bullock has virtually ruled out rate cuts, with the rapid shift in expectations driving Aussie bond yields to the highest among developed markets.
“This yield move is about anticipating stronger growth because the world will likely be fiscally more expansionary next year,” said Amy Xie Patrick, head of income strategies at money manager Pendal Group Ltd.