美国银行策略师哈内特（Michael Hartnett）关于“买传闻，卖事实”的预言前半部分已应验：上周五他预测标普 500 指数将在贸易协议框架出炉后飙升，随后该指数果然暴涨 5%。当然，细节公布后市场可能回吐涨幅，但眼下乐观情绪仍占据上风。
Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett's prediction about "buying the rumor, selling the fact" has already come true in part: last Friday, he predicted that the S&P 500 index would soar after the framework of a trade agreement was announced, and indeed, the index surged by 5%. Of course, after the details are released, the market may give back some of those gains, but for now, optimistic sentiment still prevails.
当市场在关税头条中震荡（或连日飙升）时，哈内特已瞄准“下一轮大机会”。他通过分析 2025 年表现最佳与最差的资产得出结论：2025 年“和平交易”的表现优于“冲突交易”。具体来看：
When the market is fluctuating (or soaring for several days) in the headlines about tariffs, Harnett has already set his sights on the "next big opportunity." He concludes through analyzing the best and worst performing assets of 2025 that "peace trades" will outperform "conflict trades" in 2025. Specifically:
最差资产：原油（-12%）
Worst asset: Crude oil (-12%)最佳资产：黄金（+21%）
Best asset: Gold (+21%)最强货币：俄罗斯卢布（+41%）
Strongest currency: Russian Ruble (+41%)最强股市：波兰（+28%）
Strongest stock market: Poland (+28%)特拉维夫与德黑兰股市同创历史新高
Tel Aviv and Tehran stock markets both reached historic highs.
哈内特提醒投资者紧盯三大关键水平：30 年期美债收益率的 5%、美元指数的 100 点，和费城半导体指数（SOX）的 5000 点。
Harnett reminds investors to closely monitor three key levels: the 5% yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries, the 100 points on the U.S. Dollar Index, and the 5000 points on the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX).
若美债收益率与美元再度出现“收益率升、美元跌”的组合（尤其特朗普在长期美债市场失利时），美股或将迎来下一轮抛售。不过，哈内特认为 5%的收益率仍是当前防线（失守则需撤退）。与此同时，资金对长久期资产的厌恶已达极致——生物科技 ETF（XBI）相对于经纪商 ETF（XBD）的比值跌至 2007 年 10 月以来最低，凸显出“除了债券，什么都买”的共识根深蒂固。
哈内特在报告中预测，新兴市场股票将成为新牛市的核心引擎，支撑这一趋势的三大基石是：美元走弱、美债收益率见顶，和中国经济带动
Harnett predicts in the report that emerging market stocks will be the core engine of the new bull market, supported by three main pillars: a weaker dollar, peak U.S. Treasury yields, and the driving force of the Chinese economy.
尽管市场广度改善（84%的 MSCI 指数成分股站上 50 日/200 日均线，逼近 88%的超卖阈值），但美银的“牛熊指标”仍停留在 3.6，显示情绪尚未过热。
Despite the improvement in market breadth (84% of MSCI index constituents are above the 50-day/200-day moving averages, approaching the 88% oversold threshold), Bank of America's "Bull-Bear Indicator" remains at 3.6, indicating that sentiment has not yet become overheated.
特朗普推动的“利雅得协议”成为压低油价的关键——通过地缘博弈促使沙特、俄罗斯增产以换取解除制裁，同时引导石油收入回流美债市场。油价下跌对中国、欧日及新兴市场构成利好。
The "Riyadh Agreement" promoted by Trump has become key to lowering oil prices—encouraging Saudi Arabia and Russia to increase production in exchange for lifting sanctions, while also directing oil revenue back to the U.S. Treasury market. The drop in oil prices is beneficial for China, Europe, Japan, and emerging markets.
哈内特警告，债券收益率将揭示美国政策的最终结局：是重演 70 年代“通胀式和平红利”（滞胀、保护主义），还是 90 年代“通缩式和平红利”（全球化、央行独立）？他倾向于 2025 年出现美债收益率下行与通缩，但穆迪摘除美国 AAA 评级已为长期债市蒙上阴影。
Harnett warns that bond yields will reveal the ultimate outcome of U.S. policy: will it be a repeat of the 1970s "inflationary peace dividend" (stagflation, protectionism), or the 1990s "deflationary peace dividend" (globalization, central bank independence)? He leans towards a decline in U.S. Treasury yields and deflation by 2025, but Moody's removal of the U.S. AAA rating has cast a shadow over the long-term bond market.